Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 95.7%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 6 15 - 5 +19.6      +10.4 4 +9.2 8 80.3 14 0.0 1 0.0 1
5 North Carolina 93.5%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 14 - 6 +18.8      +11.6 2 +7.2 21 85.4 3 0.0 1 0.0 1
6 Louisville 94.0%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 15 - 5 +18.8      +9.8 7 +8.9 9 68.1 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
10 Virginia 86.9%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 7 +16.7      +6.0 35 +10.6 3 54.5 353 0.0 1 0.0 1
18 Florida St. 68.5%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.3      +5.8 39 +7.6 18 71.4 107 0.0 1 0.0 1
22 North Carolina St. 65.0%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +12.7      +8.7 12 +4.0 67 77.4 26 0.0 1 0.0 1
41 Notre Dame 48.3%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +11.0      +6.1 34 +4.9 49 63.7 313 0.0 1 0.0 1
59 Syracuse 36.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 11 +8.9      +2.8 95 +6.0 33 65.4 274 0.0 1 0.0 1
63 Miami (FL) 30.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 12 +8.7      +5.2 49 +3.5 84 67.0 226 0.0 1 0.0 1
72 Pittsburgh 21.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 13 +7.3      +3.0 91 +4.4 60 67.9 207 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 Georgia Tech 21.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 12 +7.0      +2.1 112 +4.9 48 67.3 219 0.0 1 0.0 1
81 Clemson 18.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 13 +6.6      +0.3 165 +6.3 27 65.8 264 0.0 1 0.0 1
85 Virginia Tech 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 13 +6.2      +2.2 109 +4.0 66 61.6 332 0.0 1 0.0 1
91 Wake Forest 12.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 6 - 14 +5.2      +3.5 80 +1.7 121 68.3 187 0.0 1 0.0 1
101 Boston College 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 14 +4.2      +1.9 117 +2.3 109 68.0 200 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 2.8 36.0 21.3 14.8 10.1 6.6 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 3.5 25.0 18.8 16.3 12.1 8.7 6.5 4.5 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisville 3.2 28.2 21.6 15.6 11.0 7.7 5.5 3.7 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia 4.3 16.5 15.6 15.1 12.9 10.9 8.5 5.8 4.8 3.8 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2
Florida St. 6.1 5.9 8.4 10.5 11.9 11.6 11.0 9.5 8.0 6.6 5.2 4.2 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.6
North Carolina St. 6.4 5.3 7.6 9.8 10.5 11.9 11.1 9.6 8.4 7.1 5.3 4.7 3.3 2.8 1.9 0.8
Notre Dame 7.2 2.6 5.1 7.4 8.9 10.6 10.7 10.2 9.8 8.5 7.1 5.9 5.2 3.5 2.6 1.8
Syracuse 8.4 1.5 3.0 4.7 6.5 7.6 8.5 9.7 9.6 8.7 9.1 8.5 7.4 6.2 5.2 3.9
Miami (FL) 9.2 1.0 2.0 2.9 4.7 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.2 8.4 7.1 4.9
Pittsburgh 10.0 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.4 6.0 7.0 8.4 9.4 10.3 10.1 10.6 10.5 9.5 7.2
Georgia Tech 9.9 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.8 5.9 7.5 8.5 8.6 9.3 10.2 10.1 10.2 9.3 8.0
Clemson 10.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.3 5.8 7.2 8.3 9.0 9.3 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.0 8.6
Virginia Tech 10.4 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.8 4.1 5.0 6.4 7.7 8.8 9.7 9.8 10.8 11.2 10.9 9.9
Wake Forest 11.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.5 3.5 5.0 6.2 7.8 9.3 9.9 11.6 13.0 13.5 14.3
Boston College 11.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.2 5.5 6.9 8.4 9.9 11.3 13.3 15.3 17.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.3 5.7 8.5 10.9 12.6 14.4 14.2 12.0 8.3 3.4
North Carolina 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.2 6.0 8.2 10.4 12.7 12.6 13.2 11.6 8.2 4.8 1.6
Louisville 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.2 7.3 9.3 11.7 13.2 14.0 12.5 9.7 6.2 2.2
Virginia 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.9 6.5 8.2 10.2 11.2 12.2 11.8 10.4 8.0 5.5 2.8 0.9
Florida St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 3.5 5.5 6.3 8.3 10.0 11.4 11.5 11.0 9.4 7.9 5.4 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.1
North Carolina St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.5 4.0 5.5 7.6 9.2 10.0 11.1 11.0 10.3 9.0 7.3 4.9 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1
Notre Dame 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.8 7.0 9.4 10.1 11.6 11.1 10.3 9.1 7.0 5.0 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.4 6.3 8.2 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.3 9.6 7.6 6.6 4.4 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 6.4 8.3 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.0 9.7 7.7 6.6 4.4 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 7 - 13 0.4 1.4 3.3 5.5 8.1 10.2 11.5 11.7 11.0 10.3 8.7 6.7 4.6 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 8 - 12 0.4 1.7 3.3 5.7 8.0 9.8 11.0 11.4 10.8 9.7 8.6 6.8 5.1 3.5 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 7 - 13 0.4 1.5 3.7 6.1 8.4 10.3 11.0 11.6 11.0 9.9 8.2 6.2 4.7 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 7 - 13 0.6 2.1 4.1 6.8 9.0 10.7 11.6 11.5 11.0 9.6 7.2 5.7 4.2 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 6 - 14 0.9 3.3 5.9 8.9 11.0 12.7 12.0 12.0 9.2 8.4 5.8 4.2 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 6 - 14 1.2 3.9 7.4 10.2 12.4 13.0 12.1 10.6 9.0 7.1 4.8 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 36.0% 25.3 8.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 25.0% 16.5 6.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisville 28.2% 18.4 7.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia 16.5% 10.2 4.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 5.9% 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.3% 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 2.6% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 95.7% 25.0% 70.7% 1   26.8 20.2 13.7 10.1 7.0 5.2 4.1 3.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 94.2%
North Carolina 93.5% 20.8% 72.7% 2   25.7 19.6 13.4 10.0 7.2 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 91.8%
Louisville 94.0% 21.2% 72.8% 2   22.5 18.6 13.7 10.5 8.0 6.1 4.4 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.0 92.4%
Virginia 86.9% 13.8% 73.1% 3   13.3 13.0 11.8 10.7 8.6 7.3 6.3 5.3 4.1 3.1 2.7 0.8 0.0 13.1 84.8%
Florida St. 68.5% 5.4% 63.1% 5   4.2 5.7 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.3 5.0 4.3 3.3 1.1 0.0 31.5 66.7%
North Carolina St. 65.0% 5.0% 59.9% 7   2.7 4.8 6.4 6.5 7.1 7.5 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.2 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 35.0 63.1%
Notre Dame 48.3% 2.8% 45.5% 11   1.0 1.9 3.1 3.4 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.0 5.1 5.8 2.1 0.1 0.0 51.7 46.8%
Syracuse 36.3% 1.5% 34.8% 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.3 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.7 1.6 0.1 63.7 35.4%
Miami (FL) 30.3% 1.4% 28.9% 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.5 1.1 0.0 69.7 29.3%
Pittsburgh 21.8% 0.7% 21.1% 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 78.2 21.3%
Georgia Tech 21.3% 0.6% 20.7% 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 78.7 20.9%
Clemson 18.3% 0.6% 17.7% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 3.3 1.4 0.1 81.7 17.8%
Virginia Tech 14.5% 0.6% 13.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 85.5 13.9%
Wake Forest 12.8% 0.3% 12.4% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 87.2 12.5%
Boston College 10.1% 0.2% 9.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.1 0.8 0.0 89.9 9.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 95.7% 1.2% 95.1% 84.1% 60.4% 38.8% 23.2% 14.0% 7.8%
North Carolina 93.5% 0.9% 93.2% 81.4% 56.8% 35.9% 20.9% 11.6% 6.4%
Louisville 94.0% 1.3% 93.5% 80.3% 55.4% 34.5% 20.1% 11.2% 6.2%
Virginia 86.9% 2.1% 85.9% 68.6% 42.5% 23.9% 12.9% 6.6% 3.3%
Florida St. 68.5% 3.1% 66.8% 46.9% 24.3% 11.8% 5.1% 2.3% 1.0%
North Carolina St. 65.0% 4.2% 63.0% 42.5% 20.6% 9.4% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7%
Notre Dame 48.3% 5.6% 45.7% 28.1% 12.3% 5.5% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4%
Syracuse 36.3% 4.6% 34.1% 18.9% 7.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Miami (FL) 30.3% 3.1% 28.7% 16.5% 6.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Pittsburgh 21.8% 3.3% 20.1% 10.8% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 21.3% 2.4% 20.2% 10.6% 3.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Clemson 18.3% 3.5% 16.4% 8.5% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 14.5% 3.0% 13.1% 6.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Wake Forest 12.8% 1.7% 11.8% 5.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Boston College 10.1% 2.1% 8.9% 3.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.6 5.9 21.6 33.7 26.0 10.1 1.8 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 8.3 25.4 33.5 22.4 7.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.1 0.9 6.9 21.8 32.7 24.9 10.5 1.9 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.2% 3.0 0.8 7.7 23.8 34.4 24.1 7.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 90.3% 1.7 9.7 33.1 37.3 16.4 3.1 0.3 0.0
Final Four 69.0% 0.9 31.0 47.3 19.5 2.1 0.1
Final Game 45.2% 0.5 54.8 40.2 5.0
Champion 26.4% 0.3 73.6 26.4